Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

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2449 days, 14 hours, 5 minutes ago

Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Well gentlemen, it has come again, time to place your bets!

1) Who will be the emperor and why?
2) Who will die first and why?
3) Who will kill another race first and why?
4) Which turn the ship limit will be hit?
5) Which turn the first race be dead?

2448 days, 0 hours, 44 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

The mighty Romulan people do not place bets!

They calculate, scheme, and hand out many many bottles of vintage Romulan Brandy.

2447 days, 22 hours, 48 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Come on now, some bets people!

2447 days, 22 hours, 1 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Guess I have to guess first, though I bet my bets will go wrong ;)

1. Dines or Mentar. Solid looking players with races that can fight against anyone.

2. Borg. Lesson learned from Taurus.

3. Lecko (my good old ally). He will planet hop and surprise someone with his dark sensing SSD. (just a funny scenario that will get zero votes)

4. ship limit turn 25

5. first casualty turn 30

2447 days, 1 hours, 51 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

1) Who will be the emperor and why?

The Crystals showed their muscle in Scorpius, The Borg in Taurus, as such my vote goes to the Privateer to earn his first emperor crown in this one. I'll hedge my bets by giving a dark horse vote to the Feds because of Halion's experience in one Emperor game already.

2) Who will die first and why?

Borg, because of its dominance in Taurus.

3) Who will kill another race first and why?

Fascists because they are built for the early rush and their commander is aggressive.

4) Which turn the ship limit will be hit?

Turn 30. Quality folks over quantity...

5) Which turn will the first race be dead?

Turn 35, followed closely by two or three others :-)

2447 days, 0 hours, 36 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

1) Who will be the emperor and why?
Halion i hope, but he will get problems with fully equipped SBs later. Nitemare could do it if he can get hands on SSDs. But somehow i have the feeling that it´s time for a big bad Robot.

2) Who will die first and why?
Whoever is next to Bird.
3) Who will kill another race first and why?
Bird, since Lizzys rush in Scorpio, a LCC is not enough for an early kill. A Resolute will do better.
4) Which turn the ship limit will be hit?
Turn 23, build, build, build or get killed by Cubes and Carriers!!
5) Which turn the first race be dead?
40 as cleanup will take longer.

2446 days, 22 hours, 52 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

This is a such a tough call this time around.
I'm a swordsman, I value experience over anything else. If based only on that principle Dines would win, he's definitely got the XP edge in the group, it's already clear to me. However, and here's Dines' huge conundrum: he's at the helm of the worst race for this sort of adventure. (Why do you play lizards Dines?!). If people do not trade with him and/or he doesn't subjugate a player he's stuck with his ship list and he won't make it.
By the same token the player who has played the most high-level opponents is Halion. So Halion's XP is really becoming top notch. Whereas Dines has a few trades he can make Halion's diplomatic leverage is huge.
I agree with tom that there's opportunity for a pirate, and I do think that we will have a pirate emperor at some point, jaloke is dangerous, very dangerous, however so is othrym, othrym is in the top 5 players on this site in my opinion, and pirates have well known vulnerabilities and can be screwed over so I can't put him at the forefront, it's going to be rough, no cakewalk robbing and difficult politics.
Nightmare is a great player as well but no one will be fool enough to make a nice border with him, he may end up boxed in.
However the other race that people underestimate is the colonials. Colonials as a race are very very strong and Mentar while he doesn't have the same XP as his opponents, Mentar wins, a lot, with a strong race. His weakness is that he's going to need a lot more than the 40-70 bases he typically builds. Playtime's over these guys will fight back, if he learns and adapts as quickly as I think he can, watch out. In fact everyone's strategy is forcibly going to be different and I'm sure they know it.

Tabulating everything my vote will be:
1/ Mentar (colonial) overall highest chance of success
2/ Andy44 (borg) my own personal success will kill him (sorry man, good luck!)
3/ Big burtie (robot) he won't turtle this game, someone's going to suffer heavily at the start
4/ 22 like Taurus
5/ turn 40, I expect heavy economic development before ship limit. Someone will be on the ropes by 20 but an actual exit will take to 40. I expect Dines to do a textbook rex rush though again I don't think he'll sink his teeth in all the way or it may kill him like Thin Lizzy.

We'll see!

2446 days, 20 hours, 55 minutes ago

echoclusterveteran

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

1. I'm going to go out on a limb. Since I've not played much with these people, I'm going to bet on Yosh because I think the Rebels are the most underestimated race in Planets.

2. Andy44 will die first. Those of us in the nosebleed section of the bleachers of these championship games have a feeling that DM has taught all those folks a lesson regarding letting the Cyborg stay alive in a no-alliances game. Emperor Lecko will dark sense everywhere, everyone will get out their 350ly measuring tapes, and there will be widespread diplomatic consensus as to the first order of business.

3. This of course all depends on positioning, but I will bet on the aggressive potential of Mentar of the Colonies.

4. Turn 28. In Tom's words, "quality over quantity".

5. Turn 45. Andy will take a beating and may even appear dead, but he will still be probing around and itching for any possible advantage. So I predict that someone will get mad and commit suicide around turn 45, but I would love to be proven wrong.

2446 days, 16 hours, 23 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

While I won't place any bets for obvious reasons, just 1-2 comments.

1) 4 turns played in the game, it's pretty obvious to me that Dines has an explosive start, which is exactly what Lizards need to do a frontrunning win. For qualified spectators, I'm sure I won't have to elaborate why. Just take into account Dines' usual opening style and you know what's up.

2) Writing "down" the Borg is always dangerous. Andy44 is playing exactly the kind of start that's necessary for a strong game.

3) I'm grateful for the words of confidence, but I don't see me as a frontrunner contender. As everyone can see based on my finished games, I never once reached an "end game" in Nu, so I'm sorely lacking endgame experience. I'll definitely do my best, but I'm mostly in for fun. DM: I don't see building too few bases as my prime 'weakness' though ^_^; ... if it's blatantly obvious how the game is going to end, I've got to admit I'm not trying to squeeze the last performance out of my position, but rather try to end it ASAP and rather spend most of my allocated playing time on a new game. And finally, I have what's probably the trickiest and most unbalanced starting position I can think of in my last 10 games. Would love to get feedback from other players if they feel the same - did Joshua tweak the map generator once more? Can go either way, I honestly can't tell yet how this will work out.

4) Due to several observations, I'm convinced that the ship limit will be hit pretty early.

5) It seems to me that the level of inter-player talk and diplomacy is significantly lower than for example in Taurus, also the participation in the forum. I'm curious how much this will pick up once the goldfishing turns are over.

Anyway, hoping for a fun experience ;)

2446 days, 14 hours, 4 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

One of the critical factors of this game is manipulating the turn the ship limit is hit. Its like a meta game within a game. Like pawn structure in Chess.

Closer to 20 favors the torp races (Birds, Lizards, Crystals, Privateers Fascists), closer to 30 favors the carrier races (Colonies, Rebels, Borg, Robots, EE). Interestingly the Fed, with his special ability, can benefit either way.

One of several lessons learned in Scorpius. Quality over quantity.

Tom

2446 days, 13 hours, 32 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

You're right Tom but there's a truism in that those with the most ships and planets will eventually win. So you don't so much as manipulate the ship limit but instead try to greedily hoard as many ship slots (and planets) as possible whether you're a carrier race or not. The rebels are particularly good at this since their tech1 falcon is a very useful ship even with SD1 and x-rays, so to be critical I think you should have gone quantity over quality in Scorpius (and in general).
In Taurus Skiv has beautiful high tech carriers, bristling with with heavy phasers, transwarp engines but they die just the same to an x-ray/blaster SD1-5 cube. It's not pretty but push come to shove more is better.

2446 days, 11 hours, 47 minutes ago

echoclusterveteran

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Tom and DM, I'd love to discuss the quality vs. quantity issue at length with you at some point in the future, or maybe we could start another thread.

When the endgame comes, it's clear that whoever's got the most ships has a huge advantage and that seems to matter more than even strength of economy, number of planets, strength of firepower, or position. The reason that none of us seasoned players wants the 500-ship limit to go away is that we know that domination within that limit is ultimately the way to win.

However, more than once I have made the "quantity mistake" in a big way and learned a huge lesson from it. By "quantity mistake" I mean (1) building the second starbase too early (2) rushing the limit, and (3) overvaluing spacefillers; while simultaneously (1) failing to get some way to defend myself and (2) failing to expand, or expanding but not exporting enough clans.

Every time I have made this mistake (and I am embarrassed to say I have made it many times), it has resulted in a very big early thrashing and a painfully lost game.

My real-life financial advisor once told me that effective investing is fundamentally a balance between fear and greed. At least for me, my downfall in Planets has always been greed.

Yes, I understand that Cyborg need the second starbase quickly (maybe even by turn 4) (and Rebel, Fascist, and Empire maybe almost as quickly, for various reasons). But no matter who you are, you've got to strike balance between quality and quantity in the early game or you're toast. Balance means (1) fill your fleet with ships that maximize your positional and tactical possibilities, and (2) for God's sake, don't economize on beams, even if you're Robot or Colony.

I don't play chess (I just study and read about it), but why is it that, even at the championship levels, the most common response to d4 d5 is the Queen's Gambit? The best players are quite often willing to sacrifice material for quality, knowing that it will likely be duly compensated sooner or later.

I don't want to hijack this thread, so if somebody wants to continue this dialog please start a new one!

2445 days, 22 hours, 57 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

It's not what pieces are in ones hand, but how one plays them.

2445 days, 22 hours, 53 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

I want more bets! If you guys want to discuss overall strategy such as quantity vs. quality I'll freely do so in another thread.

2445 days, 22 hours, 30 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

DM,

You're right, sorry for the high-jack.

More quantity of bets are required here.

Tom

2445 days, 19 hours, 44 minutes ago

echoclusterveteran

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

I started a new thread, copying and pasting my above post. It would be interesting to continue the discussion.

http://planets.nu/discussion/quality-vs-quantity-a-vga-planets-inquiry-into-values

Ok bets now please men! DM are we doing horse-race style odds?

2445 days, 19 hours, 32 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

I'd like to point out that falcons are tech 2 not tech 1.... ;)

But yes a low tech falcon is almost as useful (and a lot cheaper) than a high tech falcon.
And if you have 60-80 of them lying around you don't really feel put out so much when one gets blown away in a hyperbomb maneuver.

As to bets:..coming shortly..

2443 days, 4 hours, 55 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

I might place a bet as well... 50 cents go to... the... yeah... the...REBELS! Got it.
Fun is a dish best served cold. No wait, that was revenge.

2442 days, 22 hours, 46 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Get your bets in soon! Betting will be closing shortly now that map and neighbours are being revealed!

2442 days, 22 hours, 17 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

I only know where will be the first race to dead..The privateer.

2442 days, 22 hours, 5 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Come now, come now, I won't tell you both how to play your cards, if you speak the truth you've both done enormous damage to each other with your first few moves in-game and out-of-game through intelligence and position revealing. Perhaps a bit rambunctious? Stuck between pirates and colonies in Taurus myself to start, check does not mean checkmate. Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.

2442 days, 21 hours, 17 minutes ago

star72066

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Ok - I'll play again! I'm taking the same race I took in the 2nd match - The Borg. Why is obvious - The Firecloud is overpowered and the Borg End Game is unbeatable in experienced hands.

So..

1. The Borg

2. Whoever is next to the Lizard that is Non-Borg.

3. The Lizard - Dines seems to know whats up with the Lizard and if so, he will strike to kill his neighbor fast, and succeed.

4. 24 on the ship limit.

5. 15 on the First homeworld to drop - 20 for that race to resign - 25 for that race to be zero'd.

Dines is out fast, which is what a good Lizard does, but the Borg looks to survive the early going and predicting he does, that poses huge problems for the rest.

The Keys to victory : Dines needs to make this a 50-60 turn game to win, which is difficult against top competition. The Borg 2nd starbase is a huge deal, and diplomatically there should be a consensus immediately that the Borg MUST be dealt with presently. A coaltion that stays together untill the Borg is dead. Without such a coaltion, pencil the Borg in the top spot again. If this coaltion happens, this works well for the Privateer and Crystal, and they will be headaches later, providing the Privateer didn't draw unlucky with a Bird/Lizard/Fed/Fascist pair of neighbors. The Fed/Bird/Fascist I don't see ever winning a championship match, but if I had to pick one to suprise one day, it would be the right Fascist player, with favorable Fascist neighbors, and a set of really strong starting planets. All things being equal, those three will always be overpowered in end game and it holds bad that the Fascist isn't one of the early 2nd or 3rd starbases.

In conclusion: Give me the Borg. Petty squables - hungry early homeworld hunters - and the solo win condition will see greed conquer sense and the Borg will prosper, grow, and destroy. It's just the most likely scenerio.

KILL THE BORG ! KILL THE BORG ! and when in doubt KILL THE BORG ! When you have championship quality Borg commanders, if you fail in this - all will die.

My favorite underdog is Nitemare's Crystals - He is a recent friend and ally in the clusters and his understanding of the game is strong. GO NITE GO !

Now where is my CHA-CHING! for my winning ticket in Championship Match 2. ::Holds up Borg Ticket:: ;p

2439 days, 13 hours, 55 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Bets will be closing turn 12, get your bets in!

2439 days, 9 hours, 29 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

I will take a go on this but will try to limit my bets based on externally viewable info.
Obviously a lot of the trajectory and outcomes can be adjusted if you get an above average or below average starting position.. i suspect 1-2 players in this game are lookng around nervously and at least 1 player is extremely happy with their starting point... anyway i digress.

1) Who will be the emperor and why?
I am going to go with nitemare based on my experiences in other games... sigh! and my other strong contender options i suspect might struggle in this games race position layout.. not revealing who i would consider for fairness.

2) Who will die first and why?
should be borg,priv or crystal based on the end game power and the other 2 emperor games.. I think crystal are too hard to kill fast at this level unless very lucky, so this game i will go for jaloke to die first as andy will surely be spreading himself out to every far corner asap.

3) Who will kill another race first and why?
I am liking the start Lord Helmet has and suspect he will try for an early kill to make space to avoid getting boxed in.
4) Which turn the ship limit will be hit?
I think it is looking like turn 26
5) Which turn the first race be dead?
turn 35

For those that have mentioned me in this thread I thank you for the confidence although i would humbly point you to other threads that disucss the relative strengths of Fed in a knockout (non team/ally) game.
There has also been some adjustments along the way to the allies rules with the game starting with max allies 2 then now adjusted to allies=1 with clearly only 1 emperor.. this has caused me to adjust my strategy.

Lastly while I haven't commented in the quantity vs quality thread I think it is an excellent debate and find myself genuinely having to balance(and change my normal Fed approach) given the ongoing discovery of planet disposition and blend of available money and minerals to me... making life interesting to say the least!

Good luck to all.

2439 days, 6 hours, 56 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

1) Who will be the emperor and why? -> andy44 (borg) because of the known endgame advantage
2) Who will die first and why? -> probably jaloke (priv) - depending which crazy strategy he is using this time ;)
3) Who will kill another race first and why? -> Dines (lizards) because of early game advantages.
4) Which turn the ship limit will be hit? -> turn 26
5) Which turn the first race be dead? -> turn 25

2439 days, 2 hours, 36 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Well gentlemen, it has come again, time to place your bets!

1) Who will be the emperor and why?

I'm going with colonies. Are we betting on why? well, because.

2) Who will die first and why?

I'm not going to bet borg dead first just because everyone thinks they should die,
I'm going to go with a privateer death, again random decision to be different.

3) Who will kill another race first and why?

I want to see a fascist kill of a race...so i guess that means the fascists have to be next to the privs ;)

4) Which turn the ship limit will be hit?

at their current rate, i'm going to say turn 23 +/- 1

5) Which turn the first race be dead?

dead dead, i'll say turn 35

Edit: what are we betting?
I'll ante up all my robot achievement points ;)

2438 days, 9 hours, 52 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

1) Mentar - Colonies able to outlast Torpers: Halion Feds, Nitemare Crystals & Dines Lizards
2) Andy44 - because he is Borg
3) Dines - Lizards need the extra space for fast start
4) 21 - thinking a mad rush very soon for starbases and ships
5) 38 - Borg spreads out so it ends up being a slow death

2435 days, 14 hours, 19 minutes ago

RE: Bets on the Sagittarius War (3rd Championship game)

Betting is closed!
And in other news the first cube is out and about... and that's respectable timing for it...